Health Ministry projects 8,000 daily Covid-19 cases in March if R-nought is 1.2

KUALA LUMPUR : The Health Ministry today warned that daily Covid-19 cases could hit 8,000 by mid-March if the basic reproduction number (R-nought or R0) of the virus infection increases to 1. 2.

Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah on his official Twitter account posted two Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological prediction models of the possible rate of infections in the country when the R0 is at 1.1 and 1.2.

“Attention to daily cases of Covid-19 and the expected projection of cases from 4 January to 31 May 2021 with R0 infection rates at 1.1 and 1.2 in Malaysia,” he said in addition to the two graphs using the different values.

Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah speaks during a press conference in Putrajaya on November 21, 2020. — Picture by Miera Zulyana
Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah speaks during a press conference in Putrajaya on November 21, 2020. — Picture by Miera Zulyana

According to the SEIR model, in the current scenario where R0 infection rate is at 1.1, daily cases would hit 3,000 during the second week of February.

If the R0 remains at 1.1 by the second week of April Malaysia will see 5,000 daily cases.

Dr Noor Hisham also posted a second SEIR model with the infection rate at 1.2 — where Malaysia can potentially record 8,000 daily cases by the third week of March.

The graph only goes to a maximum of 10,000 cases, which Malaysia would hit before April.

BY : G. PRAKASH – MALAY MAIL

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